Best of all, experts say the Titanic is the safest ship ever. Experts say it cannot sink.
Interesting how history repeats itself. It was just 5 years ago that all the “experts” were saying the same thing about the Housing & Real Estate Market. And look where we are today.
On April 14th/15th, 1912 the Titanic struck an iceberg and sank. It was a tragedy and then and now. So, what does this have to do with the Housing Market?? Well, everything and nothing.
In June of 2005 noted MSN Money writer Jim Jubak wrote “The sky is not falling. Yes, home prices are sky-high, but we really don't have a housing bubble that is anywhere near bursting. Here's why.” Read More
And in October of 2005 Ben Bernake (just days before he was nominated to become the next chairman of the federal reserve) indicated to congress that he did not think the national housing boom was a bubble about to burst. Read More
These are just 2 of the “expert” opinions shared during what is now seen as the rush up to one of the greatest down-turns in American history. Still, some areas were hit much harder than others. Here in Metro Phoenix we saw exponential growth as home values shot up more than 46% in some parts of the valley. The graph below gives you an idea of the drastic changes that took place in the market.
So, how again does this compare to the Titanic?? The “experts” believed that the Titanic and Housing Market could not be sunk for specific reasons.
Titanic
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Housing Market
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| 1. The double hull of the titanic gave it extra protection in the case of an accident. It was believed that the architecture and design of the ship could overcome any problems. |
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1. To again quote Ben Bernake, the increases "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households. |
| 2. Was pushed onward in a desire to set records and book more business. |
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2. Pushed onwards by the desire to get into a home and a shortage of housing inventory. The American Dream. |
| 3. There were warnings. The titanic had been warned several times of Iceburgs in the area. And the captain had plotted a course further to the south to adjust. Not all the warnings regarding the icebergs reached the bridge. This was a result of poor communication between the radio room and the bridge. |
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3. Shortage of housing in phoenix led to rapid expansion in the outlying areas. Homes were being built before the infrastucture was even in place. Many buyers were priced out of the market before they could buy a home. Many purchase offers waived appraisal contingencies driving prices up even faster. |
| 4. There was a contingency plan. Lifeboats. There were just not enough of them and the order to evacuate came too late. People were hesitant to leave the perceived safety of the boat and get on the life rafts. Evidenced by a lifeboat built for 65 leaving with 12 people. |
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4. Referring again to the Ben Bernake article, he said the economic effects of falling asset prices "depend less on the severity of the crash itself than on the response of economic policymakers, particularly central bankers." |
So, what has been the response of the economic policymakers and central bankers??
See Time Magazines Bailout Report Card
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Fannie/Freddie Takeover - Saved Fannie and Freddie but exposed Gov't to Trillions in Losses
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Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) - Bailed out banks and used to buy other banks. Mostly paid back.
Did not kick-start the economy or re-start lending to individuals.
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Hope for Homeowners - None of the major mortgage lenders signed on to the loan-principal-reduction program.
In January 2010, Wall Street Journal MarketWatch columnist Ronald D Orol wrote " The government's $700 billion bank bailout bill has met its goal of helping bring the financial markets back from the brink, but has so far failed to increase lending from the banks who received the taxpayer assistance, a key government overseer reported Sunday in a generally critical review of the program. Read More
None of these programs have significantly helped homeowners facing Foreclosure.
But there are alternatives to foreclosure.
Short Sale, Loan workouts, Loan Modification, Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure, Bankruptcy, and even foreclose.
How do I decide what to do?? Start Now!
I believe Short Sales are going to change how people view this current market and would love to speak with you to discuss ways you can move on. There is help.
The fact of the matter is that you may be in a negative equity (upsidedown) position on your home. This isn't something to be embarrased about or hide from in hopes that it will go away.
The time to act is now!
Call me today @ 480-545-5800
Now, In all fairness to the "experts", it's easy to be the Monday Morning Quarterback.
It's easy to look back and say "if only". It's easy to try and shift the blame for the things that have happened.
It's time to stop with the easy and make the hard decisions that will put us back on course
to arrive safely at our destination.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Jared S. Jarvis
posted @ Thursday, April 15, 2010 4:27 PM